Dad Ledger Deep Dive: The Yen Carry Trade Is Dead – Here’s What It Means For You and Your Family’s Future

November 20, 2025

Dads,

Last night we went exactly as we feared it would.

Bitcoin cracked below $86K. Solana, XRP, XDC — everything down 20-40% in a single day. NVIDIA dropped one of the best earnings reports in history and the market yawned, then puked.

We jumped on an emergency Dad Ledger Live to talk through what the hell is actually happening.

This is the long-form write-up you asked for.

We’re going to go deep on the yen carry trade — where it came from, why it ruled the world for 15+ years, why it is finally, unmistakably dying right now, and what that death throes look like for your 401(k), your crypto wallet, and the cost of your next truck payment.

Then we’ll unpack Jake Claver’s “Reverse Carry Trade Domino Theory” that he has been screaming about for months — the one that now looks terrifyingly on-schedule.

And finally, real talk: what actual moves you can make as a father who has mouths to feed, a mortgage, and zero interest in getting rekt by some hedge-fund puke in Tokyo.

Let’s go.

Part 1: The Yen Carry Trade – The Greatest Free Money Printer in History

Imagine you could borrow money at 0% (or even negative rates) for almost two decades, swap that money into dollars, and then buy anything that yielded more than 0% — stocks, tech, real estate, Bitcoin, whatever.

That’s exactly what happened.

After Japan’s 1990 bubble burst, the Bank of Japan slammed rates to zero and basically never left. For 25 years they printed yen like it was going out of style and punished anyone who tried to save in yen (negative rates).

So the smart money (hedge funds, Japanese housewives — seriously, “Mrs. Watanabe” became legend) borrowed yen basically for free, sold the yen, bought dollars (or euros, or Australian dollars), and then bought higher-yielding assets.

Simple arbitrage.

Borrow ¥ at 0% → swap to $ → buy U.S. 10-year Treasuries at 4-5% → pocket the difference → repeat forever.

But it didn’t stop at bonds.

They bought Nvidia. They bought Bitcoin at $3K, $10K, $30K, $60K. They bought MicroStrategy convertible notes. They bought Solana ecosystems, AI tokens, everything.

Estimates put the total size of the yen carry trade at anywhere from $4 trillion to $20 trillion (yes, with a T) when you include all the leveraged derivatives layered on top.

It was the invisible hand pumping global risk assets higher for a decade and a half.

Every time you wondered “why the hell is this market still going up on terrible news?” — part of the answer was Japanese borrowing costs were negative in real terms and someone was happy to own your favorite asset at any price.

Part 2: Why It’s Unwinding NOW (And Why It’s About to Get Ugly)

The Bank of Japan finally grew a pair.

After decades of deflation paranoia, they started hiking rates in 2024 and have continued into 2025. The yen, which had been in terminal decline (160+ to the dollar in mid-2024), has ripped all the way back toward 140 and is still strengthening.

When the yen strengthens, the trade stops working.

Suddenly that 0% loan now costs 1%, 2%, maybe soon 3-4%. The “carry” (the profit) disappears. Worse, every 1% the yen appreciates is a 1% loss on the currency leg alone.

So the math flips from “free money” to “bleeding money every single day you keep the trade on.”

What do you do when your once-free loan is now expensive and still getting more expensive?

You close the trade.

Sell the assets → buy back yen → repay the loan.

But when everyone tries to do it at once, you get a self-reinforcing spiral:

1. Yen strengthens
2. Carry becomes unprofitable → forced selling begins
3. Selling risk assets pushes prices lower → margin calls hit
4. More forced selling → yen strengthens more → rinse and repeat

This is the “reverse carry trade” or “carry trade unwind” everyone has been warning about since 2023.

We are in it. Right now. Now.

That’s why Nvidia can beat earnings by 20% and the stock still drops 7%. The carry traders don’t care about fundamentals right now — they care about surviving.

Part 3: Jake Claver’s Reverse Carry Trade Domino Theory – The Scariest (and Most Bullish) Thesis in Crypto

Jake Claver (go follow him if you aren’t) has been laying this out for months, and last night we played the clips.

Here’s the domino sequence he sees:

Domino 1 – Yen keeps strengthening → carry becomes deeply unprofitable Domino 2 – Massive margin calls hit global markets (especially on a weekend or U.S. holiday when liquidity is thin) Domino 3 – Counterparties issue a global credit/liquidity call — everyone has to post collateral or settle at once Domino 4 – Traditional systems (SWIFT, correspondent banking) literally cannot handle real-time multi-trillion-dollar settlement on a weekend Domino 5 – Panic → emergency activation of already-built private ledger solutions (RippleNet, etc.) using XRP for real-time settlement Domino 6 – XRP, the ONLY major crypto with full legal clarity (commodity, not security — thank you 2023+ years of SEC pain), becomes the emergency bridge asset Domino 7 – Trillions (yes, trillions) in parked liquidity needed instantly → XRP price discovery to whatever the market will bear

Jake’s specific call (as of last night): $750+ XRP before December 31, 2025.

Before you laugh — remember Bitcoin went from $15K to $69K in 2021. XRP went from $0.17 to $3.84 in 2017. When real utility meets forced buying and zero selling pressure, price can detach from reality for a while.

The pain comes AFTER the pain.

Jake expects:

– 50-60% drawdowns across equities and crypto – Gold temporarily smashed to ~$2,000 (forced liquidation) before rocketing higher – Bitcoin potentially $40-50K – Altcoins absolutely obliterated

And then… XRP god candle as the new system boots up.

Extreme? Yes. Impossible? No.

We now have Bitwise launching an XRP ETF yesterday (0% fees for the first month on up to $500M AUM — they are front-running this exact scenario). Canary Capital, 21Shares, and others are lined up. BlackRock already has the Delaware trust sitting there from two years ago.

The plumbing is ready. They’re just waiting for the crisis.

Part 4: What This Means For You, The Dad Reading This at 10:30 PM After the Kids Are Finally Asleep

1. Expect more pain. Probably a lot more. We are likely weeks, not months, away from the real margin-call weekend Jake describes. Volatility is about to go nuclear.
2. Do NOT use leverage right now. The guys getting carried out on stretchers are the ones who were 5-10x long with borrowed yen or stablecoin loans. If you own it outright, you can’t get liquidated.
3. Cash (or stablecoins) is about to have massive optionality. When Bitcoin is $60K and XRP is $0.30, the dads who kept powder dry are going to look like geniuses.
4. Long-term conviction assets only. If you believe we are moving to a new monetary system (ISO 20022 goes live in 5 days, Clarity Act likely early 2026), then the assets that survive and thrive are the ones with actual utility in that system (XRP, maybe XLM, Quant, maybe HBAR, etc.) and the monetary metals (Bitcoin, gold, silver).
5. Use this time to average in — but do it like a man, not a degen. Set buy orders lower. I personally have bids all the way down on XRP, XLM, BTC, and a few others. If they fill, great. If not, I still sleep at night.
6. Talk to your wife. Real talk. Show her the charts. Explain this is the shakeout before the biggest wealth transfer we’ll ever see. The dads who panic-sold Bitcoin at $16K in 2022 or $3,800 in 2020 still cry themselves to sleep. Don’t be that guy.
7. Remember why we’re here. We aren’t trading JPEGs. We’re trying to build generational wealth in a world that is actively trying to inflate it away. The fourth turning is here. The system is changing. Stay focused on the horizon, not the 15-minute chart.

The carry trade era is over.

The pain trade is just beginning.

But on the other side is the greatest opportunity most of us will ever see.

Hold the line, brothers.

We ride at dawn.

– Ryan, Trent, & Timo Dad Ledger

P.S. None of this is financial advice. We’re just dads who’ve been through a few cycles, trying to help other dads not get wrecked. DYOR. Talk to professionals. Protect your family first.

But man… it’s getting real out there.