Hey Dad: Crypto Market Cycle Psychology – We’re Still in DISBELIEF (Not Depression Yet). Here’s Why I’m Calm & How I’m Quietly Growing My Bags for the Family
Nov 18, 2025
Dad, let’s talk straight. You’re watching the charts bleed red, Bitcoin barely up 2 % up for the whole year, XRP stuck around $2.20-$2.50, alts getting crushed… and you’re wondering, “Did we already miss the bull run?”
I felt the same twitch of anxiety this week. But after digging into the classic market cycle psychology chart again — and listening to sharp guys like Jesse Echols and House of Crypto (Peter Tocke) — I’m actually more calm than I’ve been in months.
Because we never actually hit real euphoria. We had a sucker’s rally in the summer, a brief “this is it!” moment, then straight back down into disbelief.
And that’s exactly where the biggest gains are made.
Watch the full solo Dad Ledger episode HERE — then scroll for the breakdown + exactly what I’m doing right now to grow my bags without selling a single sat while we wait for the real move.
Not financial advice – just a dad talking to another dad. DYOR.
The Market Cycle Chart Doesn’t Lie – We’re in Disbelief, Not Capitulation
Both Jesse Echols and House of Crypto dropped near-identical videos within 48 hours breaking down the same psychology chart.
- Bulls say: “We’re still in Disbelief → about to flip into Hope → Optimism → Euphoria (late 2026).”
Bears say: “We’re already sliding into Anxiety → Denial → Panic.”
I land in the middle — but leaning bullish.
Here’s why this cycle is different:
- We never saw widespread euphoria in 2025. Bitcoin hit new highs, yes — but only barely. Ethereum barely touched its old ATH. Cardano, Avalanche, Chainlink, most alts? Never even got close. That’s not a blow-off top. That’s a sucker’s rally reset.
- Bitcoin is only +2.4 % YTD as of tonight. That is not the “super cycle” everyone was calling for.
- The anger on Crypto X right now isn’t “we’re at the top!” anger. It’s “we missed it!” anger — exactly what you see in the Disbelief phase.
So yes, we’re red. Yes, it hurts. But we are not in capitulation yet. We are in the perfect spot to keep stacking.
The Catalysts Are Still Fully Intact (Actually Stronger)
Nothing fundamental has broken:
- Genius Act passed → stablecoin legislation rolling
- SEC is now crypto-friendly (new leadership, new rules)
- Spot ETFs live for BTC, ETH, SOL (BESOL), XRP (Canary + more launching)
- Institutional rails being built at warp speed
- Real-time settlement pilots, tokenization, cross-border volume exploding
All the dominoes Jake Claver talks about are still lined up. They just haven’t started falling yet.
That’s why I’m not selling. I’m actually adding — just not with fresh fiat.
How I’m Growing My Bags Right Now (No Selling, No Margin, No Stress)
-
Ethereum & Solana Staking (Robinhood / Uphold)
- ETH ~2.5–4 % APY
- SOL higher (6–8 % on some platforms) I had all my ETH staked earlier this year — made solid extra coin while sleeping. Unstaked a couple months ago to have dry powder… but honestly thinking about re-staking part of it again.
-
DAG Delegation – 13 % APY Paid By The Second Constellation Network is legit DoD-level tech (immutable data for military/intelligence). I delegate my entire DAG bag to validators:
- Dagnum PI (top validator)
- Digital Ascension Group (Jake Claver’s node)
- Ben Jorgensen (CEO)
- Upsider (Joao’s crew)
13 % APY, paid literally every second. No lockup on most validators. My bag grows while I wait.
-
Flare + Bifrost Liquid Staking Wrapped Flare → delegate on Bifrost → earn every 3 days + still eligible for remaining Flare airdrops (ends ~Jan 1). Instant unwrap if I ever need to exit. Zero stress.
These three strategies alone are compounding my holdings every single day while the market throws its tantrum.
I’m not gambling. I’m not using margin. I’m not shorting. I’m just letting time + real utility pay me while we wait for the real bull phase.
Mindset Shift: Pompliano’s “Chill Room” Advice
Anthony Pompliano said it best today: Stop gambling. Go to the chill room. Have a drink. Relax. The move is still ahead of us.
That’s exactly where I’m at.
I’m not selling at 2 % YTD gains. I’m earning 8–13 % on parts of my bag while I wait. And when the real euphoria finally hits? I’ll have more coins than I do today.
That’s how you build real wealth for your wife and kids — patiently, consistently, without emotion.
New Playlist Alert: Home Defense & Family Prepping
I just started a new playlist covering:
- Comms (radios, Starlink backup)
- Home defense setups
- Food/water/storage
- Solar flare / grid-down prep
Because protecting your family isn’t just about money. It’s about being ready for anything. Link in description — go subscribe to it.
Your Dad Action Plan This Week
- Pull up the market cycle chart. Ask yourself honestly: Have we truly seen euphoria yet?
- If you’re in disbelief/anger — good. That’s where millionaires are made.
- Pick one yield strategy this week: stake ETH/SOL, delegate DAG, or wrap Flare on Bifrost.
- Do NOT margin trade or short. Just don’t.
- Go hug your wife and kids. Tell them you love them. That’s the real win.
We’re early, Dad. The best part is still in front of us.
– Ryan Dad Ledger: Faith. Family. Finance.
Get your Crypto 101 Guide: https://www.dadledger.com/crypto
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